Hotel Booking Prediction Using ANN

 

Hotel Booking Prediction Using ANN

Download Dataset: Hotel Booking Dataset

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Problem Statement

The hospitality industry faces significant financial losses due to hotel booking cancellations. By analyzing historical booking data such as booking lead time, customer type, room type, meal plan, market segment, and previous cancellations, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) can be developed to predict whether a booking is likely to be cancelled or not. This enables hotels to improve occupancy planning, revenue management, and customer service.

Dataset Information

AttributeDescription
Dataset NameHotel Booking Demand Dataset
Problem TypeBinary Classification
Target Variableis_canceled
Total Records119,390
Total Attributes32
Missing ValuesPresent in a few attributes (e.g., Company, Agent, Country, Children)
Output Classes2 (Cancelled / Not Cancelled)

Input Features

FeatureDescription
hotelType of hotel (Resort Hotel or City Hotel)
lead_timeNumber of days between booking and arrival
arrival_date_yearYear of arrival
arrival_date_monthMonth of arrival
arrival_date_week_numberWeek number of arrival
arrival_date_day_of_monthDay of arrival
stays_in_weekend_nightsNumber of weekend nights booked
stays_in_week_nightsNumber of weekday nights booked
adultsNumber of adults
childrenNumber of children
babiesNumber of babies
mealType of meal booked
countryCustomer's country of origin
market_segmentBooking market segment
distribution_channelBooking distribution channel
is_repeated_guestWhether the customer is a repeated guest (0 = No, 1 = Yes)
previous_cancellationsNumber of previous cancelled bookings
previous_bookings_not_canceledNumber of previous successful bookings
reserved_room_typeRoom type reserved by the customer
assigned_room_typeRoom type assigned at check-in
booking_changesNumber of booking modifications
deposit_typeType of deposit paid
agentTravel agent ID responsible for the booking
companyCompany ID associated with the booking
days_in_waiting_listNumber of days the booking remained on the waiting list
customer_typeCustomer category (Transient, Contract, Group, etc.)
adrAverage Daily Rate (average room price per night)
required_car_parking_spacesNumber of parking spaces requested
total_of_special_requestsNumber of special requests made by the customer
reservation_statusFinal booking status
reservation_status_dateDate when the reservation status was updated

Target Variable

FeatureDescription
is_canceled0 = Booking Not Cancelled, 1 = Booking Cancelled


Research Questions

RQ1: Dataset Loading and Understanding

How can the hotel booking dataset be loaded and analyzed to understand its structure, attributes, and target variable?


RQ2: Data Preprocessing

How can missing values, duplicate records, and irrelevant attributes be identified and handled before training the Artificial Neural Network?


RQ3: Data Transformation

How can categorical variables such as Hotel Type, Meal Plan, Market Segment, Customer Type, Reserved Room Type, Assigned Room Type, Deposit Type, and Country be converted into numerical values using appropriate encoding techniques?


RQ4: Feature Scaling

How can feature scaling (Normalization or Standardization) improve the learning performance and convergence of the Artificial Neural Network?


RQ5: Feature Selection

Which booking-related attributes have the greatest influence on predicting whether a hotel booking will be cancelled?


RQ6: Input and Output Preparation

How can the dataset be separated into input features (X) and the target variable (Y) for hotel booking cancellation prediction?


RQ7: Data Splitting

How should the hotel booking dataset be divided into training and testing datasets to ensure reliable model development and evaluation?


RQ8: ANN Model Design

How can an Artificial Neural Network architecture be designed with suitable input, hidden, and output layers for hotel booking cancellation prediction?


RQ9: ANN Model Initialization

Which Python libraries, Deep Learning framework, activation functions, optimizer, and loss function should be selected to initialize the Artificial Neural Network model?


RQ10: Model Compilation

How can the Artificial Neural Network be compiled using an appropriate optimizer, loss function, and evaluation metrics?


RQ11: Model Training

How can the Artificial Neural Network be trained using the training dataset by selecting suitable epochs, batch size, and validation strategy?


RQ12: Model Performance Evaluation

How can the performance of the Artificial Neural Network be evaluated using Accuracy, Precision, Recall, F1-Score, Confusion Matrix, ROC Curve, and AUC Score?


RQ13: Model Selection

How can the trained Artificial Neural Network be validated and selected as the best model for predicting hotel booking cancellations?


RQ14: Prediction on New Booking Data

How can the trained Artificial Neural Network be used to predict whether a new hotel booking will be Cancelled or Not Cancelled?


Easy Story to Remember ANN

Think of ANN as a student preparing for an exam:

  • Dataset → Textbook 📘
  • Features → Chapters
  • Input Layer → Student reads the chapters
  • Hidden Layers → Student understands and connects concepts
  • Weights → Importance given to each chapter
  • Bias → Extra adjustment based on experience
  • Activation Function → Decides what information is useful
  • Prediction → Student answers the question
  • Loss → Marks lost due to wrong answers
  • Optimizer (Adam) → Teacher explains mistakes
  • Backpropagation → Student corrects understanding
  • Epoch → One complete revision of the entire textbook
  • Batch → Reading a few pages at a time
  • Accuracy → Final exam score


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